Roger Federer Vs Novak Djokovic in US Open 2010 - A Report

In my preceding blog I had predicted that Federer would win. Since my prediction has gone wrong, I should hang my head in shame, though I won’t do that. Definitely I am disappointed and sad at the unexpected turn of events, but I must remind myself Roger Federer’s own words:

“I’d love to play wonderful every time I come on the court. Guys make it tough. They play and make it the way you don’t want it to be.”

Although disappointed at the outcome of the match, I must pacify myself with the positives which I found in Federer’s play. Foremost of it all, it was not at all a tame affair. The match went into five sets. The very first set was won by Federer. The second, by Djokovic, the third, again, by Federer, the fourth by Djokovic, and the decider, after some nerve-wracking, see-saw battle, by Djokovic. It was Federer who played the match-point first, and that too, twice; it was in the 10th game of the fifth set. Djokovic, on serve, averted the first match-point for Federer with an overhead smash and rose from 15-40 to 30-40. Djokovic hit a down-the-line winner to avert Federer’s 2nd match point and to wriggle out of the precarious position in which he had found himself though briefly. In the 12th game (it was the last game of the match) of the last set, too, Federer had a break point but failed to convert it.

On most parameters, Federer was clearly ahead of Djokovic. Federer served 12 aces against Djokovic’s 4. Federer won 74% of his points on his 1st serve, while Djokovic’s corresponding figure was 68% only. Federer hit 48 winners while Djokovic hit only 36. Federer’s fastest serve was of 133 MPH against Djokovic’s 125 MPH. The average speed of 1st serve was 120 MPH (Federer) and 115 MPH (Djokovic). Even the average 2nd serve speed of Federer (97 MPH) was higher than Djokovic’s (95 MPH).

Where did Federer lag behind, then? Mainly two things: One, his 1st serve, and two, unforced errors.

There was conspicuous deterioration in Federer’s 1st serve %. In fact, his habitual accuracy of 1st serves deserted him today. The % of Federer’s 1st serve in his quarter final match against Robin Soderling was a respectable 62; this time, it was a lowly 53%. In other words, nearly half of his serves went into the 2nd serve which has a much lower potential for winning the point. Similarly, Federer had won 86% of his 1st serve points in his quarter final match. This percentage fell by 12 in his semi final against Djokovic. Through this, the upper hand went over to Djokovic, even without any effort from the latter’s side.

Djokovic committed only 38 unforced errors against Federer’s mammoth 66. In every alternate set, Federer’s usual accuracy of volleys deserted him. The frame of his racquet had caught the ball a large number of times and the ball had sailed away. He missed a series of sitters at the net: he had only to finish them off, with enough space open in front, but the balls went into the net, wide or long.

Despite all this, Federer had managed twice to come as close to victory as just one point. Once again will I repeat what I used to say: for defeating Federer, one should have a booming serve, a fiery forehand and an iron will to fight till the last ball. I underline all this here once again.

Although Djokovic served 4 aces only, he compensated it with a greater % of accuracy: his 1st serves came to 62%, and he won 68% of his 1st serve points. Two contributory features of his outstanding performance today were the speed and direction of his strokes and the speed with which he covered the whole court. His forehand strokes were, at times, really hot. Not only were they hot, they were very often directed to open spaces in Federer’s half. This speed and direction explain his greater percentage of ‘receiving points won’ than Federer. For the first time in the whole tournament did I witness the sight of Federer sprinting between corners to reach fast disappearing balls. Very often, Federer too returned in the same coin and thrilled me. I still remember the blistering forehand crosscourt volleys the two players exchanged in the dying moments of the match.

Djokovic’s court coverage today was unbelievable. I believe he could very well anticipate where the ball was headed, and was there instantly. His quick movement was marvelous and I would have enjoyed it had I not been a fan of Federer. On his part, Federer too, as I said earlier, was quite fast in his steps. Though he matched Djokovic in his sprinting speed and effort, many a time I wished he had aimed more of his volleys at the open spaces. Since many balls came direct to him, Djokovic could place them at will, to his great advantage.

I had commented in my previous blog that Djokovic was temperamental. Today’s match has forced me to eat my own words. His composure throughout the match was amazing. He was cool all the time. More important, he kept exploring chinks in Federer’s armour, and trying to exploit them to the hilt. I had not expected such an intellectual performance from him. This was something that came natural to Roger Federer It shows that Novak Djokovic too has grown into a mature player. There were absolutely no tantrums which one had witnessed in some of his earlier matches. I have no hesitation to say that Rafael Nadal will have a hard time tackling Djokovic in the impending final. Both serve, volley and cover the court equally well.

The whole match was an epic battle. Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic thrilled the spectators with their scintillating performance throughout the four and-a-half hour match. Tennis at its best was there for all to see and enjoy. This was what tennis was all about, and must be why it continues to be one of the most popular games watched all over the world. Had I not been an ardent fan of Roger Federer, I too, would have enjoyed it thoroughly. Despite his defeat, the way Roger has played in this match and the whole tournament, gives me a renewed confidence in him. The present setback was only temporary. I stand assured I can definitely look forward to many more achievements from him.

Roger Federer against Novak Djokovic – Semi Final in the US Open 2010: A Prediction

The semifinal lineup is now clear. Rafael Nadal, the World Number One, will clash with Mikhail Youzhny, ranked 14, while Roger Federer, the World Number Two, will face Novak Djokovic, the World Number Three. On his way to the semifinal, Roger Federer had defeated players ranked 96, 104, 109, 13 and 5. Djokovic had beaten players ranked 47, 52, 108, 21 and 19. This will be the first time in the current tournament that Djokovic will be facing a player ranked higher than 10. Let us look at the track record of both on certain vital parameters. Although I’m a fan of Roger Federer and want him to win, I will try to be as impartial as possible for me, in the following analysis.

Serve

Aces: The ATP website shows that, till Aug 30, Federer has served 394 aces and is ranked 11 while Djokovic has served only 191 and is ranked way below, at 44. The gap between the two on this count is too wide. Their performance in their respective quarter final matches reiterate their ranking: Federer served 18 aces while Djokovic had only one. Definitely, Federer has a clear edge over Djokovic on this count.

1st serve points won: The 1st serve is often faster than the 2nd serve. It is essential for all the players, to get a majority of their 1st serves in so that their chance of winning the point increases. A higher ranked player has been able to get more of his 1st serves in than those below him. However, it won’t be enough if the player merely gets his first serve in. The 1st serve, even if not an ace, should contain sufficient power and direction enough to help the player to gain an upper hand from the very beginning and finally win the point. In short, the 1st serve should, ideally, culminate in the winning of the point. This makes it essential for us to look into the 1st serve points won by both the players. Federer has scored 77% and is ranked 6th, while Djokovic’s corresponding figures are 70% and 44. In their respective quarter final matches, Federer had won 86% of the 1st serve points; Djokovic could win 69% only. Definitely, Federer has been more impressive than Djokovic.

Points won returning 1st serve

Offence is the best defence, so goes the saying. A player begins his attack mainly with his serve. If he is capable of big serves and winning the points through them, it is as good as having won half the match. But only half the match, mind you. The other half depends on his ability to return serves. At some point of time the opponent’s serve has to be broken, in order to win the match. John Isner, the giant and big server, is ranked 1st in the number of aces served: an unbelievable 799. Andy Roddick is the next, with 648 aces. Both of them were not good returners of 1st serve: Isner is ranked 75th (the lowest in the list of 75) and Roddick, 72nd. Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic have been two of the best returners of 1st serve. They hold the ranks 4 and 5 respectively. Better than Rafael Nadal, ranked 11th.

Forehand & Backhand

I have frequently said that for defeating Federer, a player should have an abundant stock of three things: (1) A lethal serve, (2) a fiery forehand and (3) the determination to fight till the very last ball. I still hold the view. We have already considered the first, i.e., the ability to serve. Now we will look intot the forehand and backhand of both the players. As has already been mentioned, Federer and Djokovic are ranked 4th and 5th, respectively, in points won returning 1st serve. This in itself implies that they are quick followers of the ball and equally importantly, are its hard hitters too. Having watched both the players in their recent matches, I believe I’m in a good position to sit in judgement of their capabilities in this vital department of the game, too.

Though not relevant at least for now, I can’t help remembering Rafael Nadal’s amazing ability and care to direct the ball to vacant spaces in his opponent’s court. If there is any open space in his rival’s court, the next ball will go right there, have no doubt about it. And no two balls will go to the same place. Making his rival run from corner to corner is Nadal’s favourite pastime on court. Perhaps the man survives on that particular skill of his: he is no big server (ranked 45th).

Roger Federer comes a close second, with the exception that at times, especially when not in the right mood, he keeps sending the ball, often the backhand slice, straight to the opponent again and again. He more than compensates this with his other skills. At times, his backhand (not the slice) is as good as his forehand. In his last five matches (including those against Jurgen Melzer and Robin Soderling) his forehand and backhand volleys had packed a lot of punch.

When I speak about forehand volleys what I remember is the way Fernando Gonzalez once defeated Andy Murray in one of their matches. The forehands of Gonzalez in that match were savage, to say the least. Murray couldn’t withstand them and simply went down. Later, in the Australian Open, Murray himself conquered Rafael Nadal with blistering forehands and backhands. In the same tournament, Roger Federer literally toyed with Andy Murray, with same weapons. Djokovic’s volleys are good, all right, but do not match Federer’s, at least for now. I believe Federer does have the upper hand on this count, too.

And others

When it’s Federer, there are other things too, to speak about. I have never seen another player who has such a ball-sense. I do not know what exactly I mean by ball-sense, but what I refer to is the magic he occasionally does with the ball. In one of his matches against Djokovic, Federer hit a down-the-line winner between his legs, with his back toward Djokovic waiting at the net, ready for the ‘kill’. When the ball passed him and landed near the right corner brushing the line, Djokovic stood staring in disbelief, and slowly, raised his racquet and joined the whole stadium which was standing and applauding. Federer repeated the same marvellous feat in his first round match against Brian Dabul. I doubt whether any other player has thrilled the spectators the world over so much as Federer has.

Federer can drop and lob too, superbly. I have seen some of his drops dying down the moment they kiss the ground; by the time the opponent frantically reaches the ball, it will be lying still. His drops emerge as easily as his aces and that too when the opponents expect a cross-court. The sudden switch in strategy is often too much for the opponents to adjust themselves to; as a result their plans go haywire, shaking their confidence.

Most players scoop up the ball to lob it deep into the baseline over their opponents waiting at the net. But I have never seen any player except Federer, using the top-spin to generate a lob. Usually lobs shoot up and then slowly descend giving the opponent enough time to position himself ready for it. But Federer’s top-spin lobs travel much faster in a lower, long arc just above the opponent’s raised racquet and land well inside the baseline, squarely beating the player.

Calm and cool

Federer is the intellectual on court. He keeps his cool, no matter what. His perfectly steady mind helps him think and change strategies to wriggle out of difficult situations. He had been in trouble on plenty of occasions, but has emerged out of most of them victorious. There are very few players who can turn around the match after being two sets down, Federer is one among that minority. For the same reason, he has the better ability to withstand five-setters and come out successful. Djokovic is, rather, temperamental. On this count too, he is not a match for Federer.

History

The two have played each other 15 times. Federer has won 10 times, Djokovic, 5. The last match between them ended in Federer’s victory. Such records do not have much relevance especially when the fight is between familiar foes of such high stature. Federer knows Djokovic and Djokovic knows Federer. However, going into the match, it boosts your confidence to know that you had defeated the rival five times more than he had you. It convinces the player, that a win is quite possible. Obviously, Federer will have the greater confidence: yet another factor favouring Federer.

Prediction

The foregoing paragraphs must have pointed to the way the wind is blowing. Federer will win, I have no doubt.